Lib Dem Agony

Yesterday will be seared into the Lib Dem psyche as its worst day. Black Friday. Defeat on every front. Humiliation is not too strong a word. The biggest blow is the massive rejection of electoral reform, one of the pillars of the party’s raison d’etre. Some are already suggesting the party has received a mortal blow. Tories are extending a welcoming hand on the lines of the post Lloyd George National Liberals who took the Tory whip. Maybe, but not yet and if so, not many.

The party is down but not out. It lost half its councils and councillors, but not all of them. Its days in government may be limited to the life of this coalition. This may not be as long as people think. There may be outright Lib Dem rebellion over NHS reform or a soft touch to banking re-structuring. If the tinkering to education does not work out there could be trouble there too. Tuition fees, on which the making and breaking of their pledge, the foundation of their diaster was laid, may not go away.

Smarting, angry and emboldened, the Lib Dems may feel they have little left to lose, or perhaps more to gain, by pulling the rug from under the hugely enhanced Cameron. Their comfort zone is opposition, after all. For this reason he needs to be cautious. What has emerged is that while some Lib Dems in the south are willing to go with the Tories, the majority of the modern Lib Dem party are nearer Labour, unlike the historic National Liberals. Their votes will either go to their own candidates tactically to keep the Tories out, or go to Labour. Projections of yesterday’s results into a Parliamentary election give a clear working majority for Labour.  Considering the Brown defeat of only a year ago and the uncharismatic (though empathetic) leader chosen since, that shows a remarkable recovery for Labour and danger ahead for the Tories. It would tend to indicate that the natural majority is now with the centre left and no longer with the centre right. On that tide the Tories alone could never win nationally. Even on first past the post. They are no longer the one nation party. They are the English party and especially of the English countryside. That is not enough to govern the whole of the United Kingdom.