Clegg Down But Not Out

May 9, 2011 By Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The Tories will feel happy with the elction results. They did much better than expected and the No campaign, which they backed, won a landslide. Their happiness may be misplaced.

Their gains were largely at the expense of their coalition partners in the south, the Lib Dems, who also lost out to Labour in the north and to the SNP in Scotland. Their partners in coalition are bitter, smarting and angry. The Lib Dem membership is close to rebellion and their MPs are restive. Through gritted teeth they proclaim faith in the coalition, whilst Nick announces that the NHS reforms will be vetoed unless revised and Vince declares Tories to be rathy nasty and untrustworthy people. This is not an ideal way to conduct government, especially in a financial crisis. Voters can see cracks and the cracks will get bigger. Filling them in with spin will do more harm than good.

The reality is that the Tory victory has brought them a hobbled coalition which in future will find that it is little better than a Tory minority administration kept going by a Lib Dem confidence and supply arrangement, albeit with Lib Dems in the government. Indeed many Lib Dems want to get out of the government and become just that. Minority governments doing unpopular things do not last beyond the period of inflicting maximum pain. When conditions start to improve they are brought down and made to go to the country. If that happend the majority of Lib Dem defecting votes would turn left to Labour. The Tories would then be back in opposition.

The price of Cameron’s victory is a crippled coalition, as the unfolding weeks ahead in Westminter village will reveal. Hmmm.