Lib Dems: What Now?
May 13, 2011It may seem an odd moment, just after an election or set of elections, to read trends from opinion polls, but nevertheless that is what this blog now proposes to do.
The Lib Dems faced a more calamitous outcome in all the various elections than they could ever have imagined, topped by a landslide against AV. Paradoxically, because of their huge defeat, they are more in the news than ever before. Anything they say or do is news. Publicity is the oxygen of politics. Now is the moment for them to breathe deeply and assert their principles and beliefs. Where they are uncomfortable with Tory proposals for the coalition, they must say so loud and clear. Nick Clegg and Vince Cable have said as much and Lib Dem Lords have shot up the plan to elect police commissioners, not for long, but at least a delay to a silly, un-British and irrelevant reform.
Now to the opinion polls. These mostly show the gap between Tory and Labour closing to two or three points, with Labour currently ahead. This is exactly the prediction of this blog in the event that the referendum was lost. A NO vote was an indication of boredom with three party politics and a willingness for softer Lib Dem voters to return to their natural homes with either of the two main parties. The survival of the Lib Dems as main players now depends on their ability to coax those faint hearts back. To do that they will have to show that the party has bite, relevance and purpose. They will also have to show that it can be trusted. This last requirement is the most difficult. The tuition fees betrayal was the most flagrant breaking of a political promise in the U.K since WWII. How the lib Dems set that right remains to be seen. If they fail it is back to two party politics.
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It’s exciting to guess what news dump will take place today to distract from the relevant topics. 543 days till election day, make em count!