Is Labour Losing?

It is too early to tell but more polls are beginning to put the Tories a point or two ahead. This may be a passing moment in a race where both parties are, and have been for some months, neck and neck. Or it may be a trend. If the trend continues all sorts of unusual voting patterns would have to be in play for Labour to win. Whether Labour does well enough to lead a coalition is another question which will much depend on Scotland.

This Blog has repeatedly warned that Labour lacks a big narrative with enough weight to carry it forward to victory. A series of policy announcements with worthy promises are not a narrative to stir the heart. They are a menu from which to compare the offerings of  another set of cooks. The problem for all opposition parties is that when it comes to choosing, unless there is a real vision of better times, the tendency of cautious voters is to opt for the chef they know whose dishes they are used to.

But in the end it may all come down to how many vote for smaller parties and where and with what impact.