Election

This blog is able now to predict the possibility of an outright Tory win. Their campaign has now found focus on the issue of National Insurance increases. Labour have been caught off guard and made a mess of their response. For the first time for months Cameron is making the running. The Tory lead is edging forward and holding. It does not have far to go far to break out into a majority. A lot can still go wrong. Labour still have shots in their locker. The Lib Dems can surge and cause havoc with tactical voting. A UKIP challenge in marginals could draw votes of euro-sceptics, all Tory, and let Clegg’s people through. Griffin can skew Labour. Then there are the Greens, who may not get seats but will get votes. 

If Cameron can keep his people on message and articulte how he is going to cut and when, to lead the country out of the mess it is in, he can pull well clear of Labour. If there are more mix ups, things will not work out. However, pulling ahead of Labour may not be enough on the night. The impact of smaller parties is hard for pollsters to predict this far away from polling day, but the real jokers in the pack are Nick and Vince. It is upon their performance that the outcome now hinges.