At Last we are off!

At last what has been supposed since the New Year now actually is. We are all to have the opportunity to vote in a government on May 6th. This blog will now try and look beneath the surface to give you that extra insight.

The numbers favour Brown. He can lose about thirty seats and still have a majority of one. Cameron has to win over a hundred to get that same majority of one. But there is a new factor.  Never since the post World War One period have we had a serious third party in the mix. The Lib Dems have over sixty seats at the moment, some marginal to Labour and some to the Tories. Both have marginals to them.

In 1974, in the first GE when Heath lost his majority, but Wilson failed to get one, the Liberals had 14 seats. In the second GE of that year when Wilson got a majority of 4 (later lost in bye-elections) the Liberals had 13. In the four Conservative victories between 1979 and 1992, the Libs had 11,23,22,20. 

Then things changed. In 1997 Lib Dem numbers began to rise. In the first Blair landslide they jumped to 46, in 2001 they rose to 52 and in 2005 62. We have not before had the Lib Dems as a major force when Tory and Labour are running close. We also have two spoiler parties UKIP and BNP this time. This election is therefore unlike any other in living memory. Moreover when their numbers were small the Libs could win only Conservative seats; now they win both. There are some other intersting numbers. In 1970 a gain of 77 seats gave Heath a majority of 31. In  1979 a gain 62 gave Thatcher her first majority of 44. With these handsome gains Cameron would fall well short.

At no election since 1924 have the Conservatives gained more than 100 seats. Not since 1910 have they gone into an election with less than 200 seats. At the moment they have 198. In 1910 they managed to gain an extra 116 seats putting them even with the governing Liberals but because the emerging Labour party had 40 and other parties (Irish etc) 84, the Liberals remained in power. A second GE later in the year produced exactly the same outcome. The Tories had to wait a further twelve years before they achieved a majority and formed a government.

So can the Tories do it?  The answer, if Labour run a really good campaign to save the recovery and the Conservatives do not run a better campaign to show why the case for change is compelling, is no. If the Tories can really break free and go out ahead as the obvious better choice for not just Labour voters but Lib Dem ones too, then, yes, it can be done.

If the Lib Dems  maintain their position and moreover run a really good campaign to show reason why the third choice is best, a hung Parliament is certain. The Tories have never formed a government with a third party in a position as strong as the Lib Dems are today. The only way it could work would be if Labour lost large numbers of seats to the Lib Dems as well as to the Tories, leaving Labour and the Lib Dems with  under 300 seats between them. It is also worth remembering that in the county council elections in England in 2009, the most recent though limited comparison, the Lib Dems achieved 28% of the votes. If they get anywhere near that on May 6th, there will be quite an upset.

So this is going to be very interesting.