Each Party Fights a Different Battle

Over the campaign each main party has a different battle to fight, yet how it does will affect the other two.

Labour must stand on its claim to have called the right shots, once it realised that it was heading into a financial mega crisis, Gordon Brown showed world leadership, Darling showed judgement and cool and things are going better than many feared but as Labour said they would. Unemployment is not as bad as predicted, borrowing, though huge, is not as big as expected. We are inching out of recession. We need to stick to the path, establish the recovery on a firm foundation, then set about cutting that deficit. Changing course could ruin everything. This message is getting through. Labour is holding its own.

The Tories have a different message. The deficit is out of control. The cost of servicing the debt by paying interest to those who lend the money is a first charge on tax income, which will prove a crippling burden in future years unless a start is made right now on reduction. Studies overseas have shown that the best deficit reduction plans are founded in a mix of 80% expediture cuts and 20% tax rises. Government has become far too big and should be cut by one third. There is huge waste in quangos, programmes and procedures which will have to go. We have to set the initiative of the people free and build a new economy with manufacturing at its heart and far less dependent on the Financial sector. There must be an increase in personal responsibility and a reduction in government interference in everyday life. This message is not getting through as a whole piece.

It is scattering like an exploding shell. Shrapnel often falls on the wrong target. The recent bold decision to halt part of the NI rise has been blunted by an unwillingness to be frank about how to pay for it. Efficiency savings are about as valuable politically in 2010 as a fistful of Zimbabwe dollars. So only parts of the message are getting through. The Tories need to more than hold their own. They have to break out into open country and charge through scores of marginals to win 117 new seats. The can do it but they are not doing it yet.

The Lib Dems go into this election in the strongest position of any third party for ninety years. Their message is harder for them to get across because in the run up to the campaign they do not get as much coverage. All that now changes. They agree that there will have to be tax rises and expenditure cuts. They want to remove the bottom earners with under £10,000 p.a. from income tax, impose a mansion tax, a bank levy and cut out ID cards, biometric passports, Trident upgrade, child trust funds. There would be a cap on public sector pay increases of a token £400 pa. There would be reforms of parliament and the voting system. They are pro-Europe, seeing the EU’s advantages as greater than its snags. They have Vince and he would break up the Banks, leaving the Casino arm and all its players to go bust next time.

Their message is franker than the other two, it could be pleasing to many. Their challenge is to get it over. If they can hold their ground and Labour and the Tories finish up close, the Lib Dems will hold the balance. In a hung Parliament balance is power. For the first time since the old Liberal party merged formally with the SDP to create a modernised grouping it could be their moment. The fading of New Labour and the return of union backed Labour renews their mission. They need to go for it.