With the Manifestos all out, the contest will begin to move beyond the soundbite/ cheap headline stage to real issues. If the Tories manage to hold the Brexit line, that is getting it done is everything and little else matters, they will win a majority. At the moment polls show them on course for this. […]
Jeremy Corbyn is entirely right to adopt a neutral position in a Brexit referendum, if he becomes prime minister. Harold Wilson did just that in 1974. His cabinet split, as did the country, but after the result everyone was united behind the outcome to accept the revised terms of membership and remain in what was […]
Boris Johnson is way ahead in the polls and the popular sentiment among much of the press and all Tories for Corbyn is derision. So Johnson should have wiped the floor with Corbyn in their TV debate. But he didn’t. He scored on the debating points, but descended into bluster on the issues. The YouGov […]
This Blog is not persuaded that the Democrats are doing the right thing here. I have no doubt that Trump messes with foreign policy and operates outside the norms of the way things are supposed to be done. But it is because he is a maverick that he was elected. Shake everything up and drain […]
As many regular readers know I am a writer and blogger who has been a keen political observer for more than sixty years. Born a Tory, I became a founder member of the SDP, before gradually migrating left. In 2014 I published my idea Dynamic Quantitative Easing, which aroused some interest in high places. This […]
For those of you who are following the controversy surrounding the government’s decision not to publish the Select Committee’s report on Russian interference in our democracy and public life, here is a conspiracy theory for you to enjoy over coffee. Suppose the report shows a sufficient degree of Russian social media bot accounts and opaque […]
The election campaign is now underway and headlines about opinion polls are beginning to appear, depending on the political leaning of the paper or media outlet, purporting to show a trend or tell a story. The words collapse and surge will be used often. Crumble is another favourite. Several such polls have made comparisons with […]
The answer is, with this unusual election, it is impossible to predict. Once again here are the key points. If the key issue which drives voters is completing Brexit and moving on (even if only to months and years of more negotiations), Boris and the Tories will come out on top, although not necessarily with […]
In 2010 Cameron gained 96 seats for the Tories on 10.7 million votes. In 2017 May lost 13 seats and her majority on 13.6 million votes In 2015 Milliband lost almost every seat in Scotland with a net loss of 26 seats overall on 9.6 million votes In 2017 Corbyn gained 30 seats for Labour […]
In normal elections there is a general feel at the start which way they are likely to go. This time no commentator would dare to predict the outcome. But as a starter post of what are likely to be many, let me leave you with some themes. In England and Wales, if the election is […]