Now We Wait This blog identifies trends and opportunities but it is not in the predictions business. Almost everybody in that business is predicting a hung parliament.  We will now look at the best outcome for each party. The Tories  They started this year so far ahead in the polls there was talk of Labour facing […]

Greek Bail Out. There are those who say that the level of Greek borrowing is unsustainable and to borrow more will make matters even worse, leading to default within five years. They argue better to default now. Against this the argument goes that the euro would not survive long term if its members do not […]

Oil Spill America, with its extravagant use of energy resources of all kinds and especially gasoline, needs to pause and consider. Lives have been lost and a vast Eco disaster may be in prospect because of a refusal to stomach the idea of using less, first proposed by President Carter. The plea, ignored then and […]

Minority Government This is the worst possible outcome. The minority governments of Labour in 1923, Labour in 1974 and again from 1976 and the Conservatives in the terminal years of the Major government, were all weak governments which fell far short of public expectation and delivered ineffectual outcomes. In a crisis of the kind we […]

Labour Hanging On. Both the polls out today, show Labour and the Lib dems neck and neck in the upper 20s and the Tories back down to the lower 30s. This does not look like an outright Tory win. In fact both polls put Labour just in front on seats, with the Lib Dems with […]

Tory Cheer For the first time for quite a while, there is good news for the Tories. They can now win outright. It is very subtle. It is not a case of having to get to 40% plus. It is to do with the Lib Dems pulling clear of Labour. A Lib Dem surge now can […]

Opininion Poll Caution The latest poll in the Daily Mail gives Cameron 33, Clegg 32 and Brown 24. Using the BBC seat calculator this gives Con 268, Lab 217 and LD136. There are clear deficiencies in the voting system that on 8 points ahead of Labour in the popular vote the Lib Dems get 81 fewer […]

Finis Well the debates are over. Last night they all fought their corners. Cameron was at his best so far, Brown was passionate and determined but looked worn out, Clegg held his own in the crossfire. Nobody had a run away win, but neither did anybody crash out. We will have to wait for the […]

The Gaffe Ooh what excitement for the media! Yesterday there were in a state bordering on hysteria. One of the most interesting things about this general election is the inability of the media to suss what is going on. The commentators and the political parties are feasting at one table, whilst the voters are eating at […]

Trouble in Euroland Whilst this is not good news, it brings confirmation to those who hold the opinion, as I do, that you cannot have a currency without a government. In the context of the Euro, this means not just a Central Bank, but a central Treasury and a central Finance Ministry. This would mean that […]