Sea Change It is said that Jim Callaghan remarked to a colleague during the election campaign of 1979 that he thought he would lose, because there was a ‘sea change’ in the public mood. He was so right. The expression ‘sea change’ may again prove apt to describe the public mood, though which party will […]
Election Latest There is a definite shift upwards, but only slight, in the Tory lead since the budget. It is not enough on an average, spread among both polls and seats, to give Cameron a majority. He would have twenty more seats than Brown and could form a government with the Lib Dems. He could […]
The President’s Visit. With almost no warning President Obama popped up in Afghanistan. Security was given as the reason for the minimal notice of an hour. I suspect seeing things as they are, before bad stuff could be hidden, was much the more powerful motivation for the sudden arrival. When dealing with one of the most […]
Weekend Polls Still not much changing. Labour have slipped a bit here and there. It may be the Budget is not playing well, or it may be the strikes or various combinations. I doubt their new pledges will have any impact at all, but the little cards will be good tools when canvassing and if that […]
Nuclear Proliferation Of course it would be better if nobody new acquires nuclear weapons. It would be best if they did not exist. Confrontation and censure will not achieve either of these goals. There may be some subtle changes in the Obama administration’s approach, but American public opinion remains gung ho. Whenever some guru or […]
Barak Obama President Obama has changed his political fortunes in three bold strokes, re-invigourating his Presidency and showing his country and the world that he is made of much tougher stuff than a good many of his predecessors. First it was doing the deals that pushed healthcare through. Next getting tough with Israel, something which […]
Labour and Strikes So far there is no hard evidence that this wave of industrial militancy is affecting Labour. A slight drop in its support today could be just as easily caused by the budget. We need to wait until after the weekend to see if there is any new trend. There is, though, an […]
Which way is the Election going? The latest poll to which I have access, You Gov March 24th (yesterday) sampled before the budget but after the latest scandals puts Labour at 36%,the Tories at 38% and the Lib Dems at 17%.. The UNS (uniform swing) projection is for Labour having one less seat than the […]
The Budget When you sweep away the theatre and the rhetoric, not much changed in the budget. The critical point appears to be that the reduction in borrowing from forecasts because of higher revenue has been retained and not given away, so borrowing requirements overall are reduced and that should please the markets. Darling has […]